Santiago Giménez ready to replace Aghehowa: Porto face Man City and the No.9 puzzle

On Tuesday night, Porto enters a Champions League match against Manchester City with no one really sure who will be the starting center forward. Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa (commonly known as Samu Aghehowa) is still racing against fitness. The expected replacement is Santiago Tomás Giménez, who only just had his first minutes in the Primeira Liga wearing Porto's shirt.

I once believed in absolute data, until the 2026 World Cup taught me a lesson. But with Giménez, his Champions League numbers are intriguing: 8 goals in just 11 appearances in Europe's most prestigious competition. That is a record few strikers can claim, especially when most of those goals came during his time at Feyenoord – where he exploded onto the international stage.

The story is not simply about a replacement. From AC Milan, where he was left out of the Champions League squad, to Porto, where coach Francesco Farioli is looking for a reliable spearhead, Giménez carries a profile that defies skepticism: the ability to score in big matches, the hunger of someone who wants to prove his worth, and fitness that the coach himself has confirmed as "ready."

The match against Manchester City will be a defining test. Not only because the opponent is one of the Premier League's most technically gifted sides, but because Porto's system depends heavily on its center forward. If Aghehowa is not 100% fit, Giménez is plan B – or plan A, depending on how Farioli sees it.

Look back at his league debut: he came on in the 75th minute and was described by the coach as having a "positive impact." A small detail, but enough to show he has integrated immediately, albeit in only a few minutes. But can that repeat against the high-pressing defense of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City?

To answer that, I looked at data and context rather than getting caught up in emotion.

Champions League numbers: something true, but needing deeper analysis

The statistic of 8 goals in 11 Champions League games is widely touted. It makes anyone pause. But if we truly analyze it, where does it come from? Six of those goals were scored for Feyenoord in the 2026-24 competition, when they finished second in their group behind Atletico Madrid. His debut in the competition was a brace against Lazio – a performance that made anyone watching marvel at his positioning.

But here is an important point: no xG (expected goals) data has been published. The statistics Stop at goals and matches. That means we do not know if he was overperforming or just converting clear-cut chances. Perhaps those 8 goals came from obvious opportunities, or perhaps he was maximizing service. Moreover, he has never faced a high-pressing team like Manchester City in a Champions League knockout match.

I am not saying his record is fake, but it must be placed in context. Feyenoord under Arne Slot controlled possession well, and they played with a center forward receiving the ball in the box. Giménez was nurtured on crosses and fast transition moments. Porto and Farioli will probably not replicate the same approach.

A good formation is a painting, a great formation is a living system. I often use that phrase when talking about fitting players into a system. If Porto builds play through wing dominance and crosses, Giménez can thrive. But if they face Man City, who force opponents to defend deep, relying on crosses becomes ineffective.

Data only tells part of the story; the ball tells the rest – I usually reserve that for my social media, but it applies here. If you do not watch replays of his Feyenoord matches, you might mistake him for a striker who just waits for the ball. In reality, Giménez has pressing ability, but his consistency is not an absolute strength. He needs to be surrounded by teammates who create space.

Porto's context: Aghehowa's injury and Giménez's return

After moving from AC Milan to Porto in the summer transfer window, Giménez did not have a full preseason. He suffered an injury last season, was omitted from Milan's Champions League squad, and had to restart at Porto. For a player at 24, that is a huge mental challenge.

Farioli, who has been at Porto's helm since the start of the season, rarely shows early satisfaction. The fact that he brought Giménez on in a league game and described him as "physically ready" is a positive signal.

In hindsight, the data from the 2026 Asian qualifiers is where everything began. When analyzing strikers, I realized fitness is never a linear story. For Giménez, being left out at Milan was not about talent, but about the club prioritizing another option and wanting him to adapt to Serie A intensity. Porto, faced with Aghehowa's injury, needed someone who could score immediately, and Giménez's name made sense.

Tactical blind spot: Man City pressing high, how will Giménez cope?

If Porto decide to defend and counter-attack against Man City, Giménez's role would be completely different from his Feyenoord days. In a possession-based team, he is a poacher in the box. In an underdog scenario, he needs to drop deep, hold up the ball, and drag center-backs out. This could be a blind spot for the coach if he only looks at goal numbers.

Moreover, Guardiola's Man City always plays with a high sweeping defender. They force opponents to hit long balls. Giménez's strength is choosing the right spot in the box, not battling against big center-backs like Ruben Dias or Manuel Akanji.

In Porto's matches this season, we see they often push wide and use the center forward as an endpoint. If they can maintain a compact shape, Giménez will have space. But if Man City press Porto from their own half, it becomes difficult.

Will there be a tactical change?

Many expect Porto to spring a surprise with a false-nine setup, using Giménez as a false striker. But that requires a long training period to build chemistry. With a new signing, deploying him as a traditional No.9 is the safest option. Farioli seems pragmatic, not willing to risk tactical experiments in a player's first big match.

Another possibility is to partner him with Aghehowa if the latter can play. This strike duo could combine inside the box, but that would mean Porto sacrificing a central midfielder. Against Man City, controlling the midfield is key, so a two-striker system seems unlikely.

How you rise after defeat defines your class, not how you celebrate victory. I remember that phrase every time I talk about forgotten players who face injuries and rejection. Giménez is not new, but after a difficult year at Milan, he is getting a chance to redefine himself in another arena.

However, we should not hastily put the burden of changing the outcome solely on his shoulders. Porto has a squad that is not rated as highly as before. If they want points against Man City, all lines must function well, and Giménez is just one link.

What is the basis for hope?

The answer lies in two sources: first, he is a proven goal scorer in the Champions League. Even if it was for Feyenoord, goals in this competition have international significance. Second, coach Farioli has publicly said he has a "positive impact," and confirmed he has overcome fitness issues, a sign that he is being carefully prepared.

When I followed Giménez's matches from his Eredivisie days, I saw a striker with strong killer instinct. He is not afraid to move into dead zones to receive the ball. His positioning is excellent, but to adapt to Portuguese football – which has many physical duels and high intensity – he needs more time. Data I have recorded suggests that foreign strikers in the Primeira Liga usually take 6-8 weeks to reach peak form. If you count from his first appearance, that milestone may not be reached when facing Man City.

Therefore, a realistic expectation is that Giménez will be energetic, show enthusiasm, but not necessarily become the hero. Porto needs a striker who not only scores but also helps with pressing when losing the ball. That is the hardest puzzle.

Blind spots from the past: Football is not played on paper

Remember the Spain vs Russia match at the 2026 World Cup – where a team with 68% possession lost on penalties. It proved that possession stats do not answer how to break down an organized defence. Porto can have less possession, fewer shots, and still win thanks to a Giménez moment. Conversely, they can dominate completely and lose to a set piece.

That means we should not judge a match by two individual metrics. We need to look at a run of games, fan reaction, and the coach's tactical flexibility. For Porto, this match against Man City is a big trial, not only for Giménez as a player, but for Farioli's entire project.

I remember a wrong article in 2026, when I was confident Spain would go far. Correcting that mistake quickly taught me: never treat a pattern as permanent. Similarly, if we view Giménez as an infallible star, we will miss warning signs from an old injury or inconsistent usage. If we treat him as mere gap-filler, we may underestimate his ability to make a difference.

Key players beyond Giménez

When talking about this match, people often mention Erling Haaland on Man City's side. But for Porto, containing Haaland and his supporting cast is crucial. If Farioli deploys a high defensive line, the space behind will be fertile ground for Jack Grealish or Phil Foden. Conversely, if they drop deep, they gift Man City too much time to organize.

Giménez in this context is not just a center forward; he is the first line of the defensive system. His off-ball movement forces opposing defenders to hesitate when pushing up, opening spaces for Porto midfielders. There have been strikers who score well but cannot press; if he does not press well, Porto will be trapped.

Provisional conclusion and tracking points

At this moment, I cannot say whether Giménez will start or be on the bench. I also cannot say he will shine, because everything is based on pre-match signals. But one thing is for sure: this is a big opportunity for him to re-establish his value. If he is given game time, he will fight with the attitude of someone being doubted – and that is when he is most dangerous.

In a context of transfer market noise and endless rumors, what happens on the pitch is the ultimate truth. The match between Porto and Manchester City not only decides the group situation, but also hints at Santiago Giménez's future. For a striker, the important moment can come in a single play. And when it comes, I will be watching how he positions himself.

The question I ask at the end is: Will Porto use Giménez as a piece in a smoothly running system, or are they expecting him to create miracles on his own? A good formation is a painting, but without a protagonist who knows how to move, it is just a beautiful picture without soul. We need to wait and see how the Italian manager answers on Europe's biggest stage.

Tuesday night will provide the answer. And as I always tell my readers: don't read the numbers literally; watch how the ball rolls. When the whistle blows, all theories are left behind, and only those ready to adapt will keep the flame alive. Santiago Giménez has overcome many challenges to stand at this starting point. The rest belongs to his feet and the coach's calculations.